An official study has confirmed that Brazil’s previous projections regarding its aging population are incorrect and that during 2006 the country’s fertility rate dipped to the ratio projected for 2043 of 1.8 children per woman—which does not guarantee population replacement.
The official figures from the National Survey of Demography and Health, published several days ago, revealed that the projections made by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics in 2004 have become a reality 40 years ahead of time.
Analyst Elza Berquo explained that the changes in the birth rate began forty years ago, and that recent data is consistent with those records. “I don’t know why the Institute continued working with that estimate (of birth rate decline). Based on this tendency, I think fertility will continue to decline.”
Demographer Jose Eustasio Alves of the National School of Science and Statistics warned that the rapid decline in fertility will also accelerate the decline in the overall population. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics calculates that this will occur beginning in the year 2062, but the United Nations estimates that the population will begin to decrease in 2030.