Sudan's northern government, based in Khartoum, responded by invading and occupying the city on May 21. By many people's account, Hilbert said, the north “used it as an excuse” to take back Abyei – in a hugely disproportionate attack involving artillery, tanks, and infantry.
Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir said on May 24 that Abyei was “a northern land” from which his troops would “not withdraw.” According to the Sudan Tribune, the northern Sudanese leader said his forces were “prepared for war.”
But the leader of Southern Sudan's autonomous government in Juba, President Salva Kiir, said on May 26 that he would not return to war over Abyei.
According to Hilbert, foreign diplomatic pressure helped to convince President Al-Bashir to back down.
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Sudan's northern government wants relief from its international debts – which are in the tens of billions of dollars – and full diplomatic recognition from the U.S., which currently labels the Khartoum government as a state sponsor of terrorism. U.S. diplomats reportedly used both points as leverage to keep the north from provoking a full-scale war in May.
Some experts, including Georgetown Professor Andrew Natsios, believe President Al-Bashir launched the invasion as a domestic show of force, to intimidate dissidents within his own territory who may be considering an Egyptian-style revolution.
In a May 27 essay, Natsios, a former U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, explained that Al-Bashir purged his political opponents from army leadership positions before undertaking the invasion.
“Bashir's worst fear would be for these pockets of opposition to unite in a grand alliance with civil-society groups in the capital against his rule, a fear that he appears to be trying to stave off by drumming up a war in Abyei,” Natsios observed.
Whatever the motive for the invasion may have been, the diplomatic priority now is to ensure that the two sides' fragile peace can bear the weight of South Sudan's historic transition to independence.
Hilbert is optimistic. He expects Al-Bashir to restrain himself out of economic self-interest, if nothing else, now that “the die of southern independence has been cast.”
“Both sides need the oil revenue,” Hilbert said. “The oil is in the south, but the refinery and the pipelines and the export facilities are in the north. Both sides need to make sure that is not threatened.”
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Abyei's final status will remained undetermined when South Sudan becomes independent in five weeks. By that time, Hilbert hopes the international community will have managed to alleviate the immediate suffering of thousands of people who were forced to flee the city.
“The effort has to be to mitigate the suffering as much as possible for these tens of thousands of people who have lost their homes, and can't go back,” he said, “while at the same time – probably in large part behind closed doors – sitting down with people in the north and saying, 'Look, you've got to pull these troops out.'”