“Traditionalist Catholics are more supportive of McCain in 2008 than they were of Bush in 2004, but the reverse is true with regard to centrist and modernist Catholics,” the survey report states. “Latinos, regardless of whether they are Protestant or Catholic, are much more supportive of the Democratic candidate in 2008 than they were of Kerry in 2004.”
Where Catholics fall on the issues
The survey also polled Catholics about their stands on several prominent issues in American politics. Perhaps surprisingly, the survey discovered that a majority of self-described Catholic respondents clearly support pro-abortion stands, and on the issue of homosexual marriage they are evenly split.
When asked to consider the statement “abortion should be legal and solely up to the woman to decide,” 51 percent of non-Hispanic self-described Catholics agreed. Traditionalist Catholics disagreed with the statement 71 to 21 percent, centrist Catholics agreed 54 to 40 percent, and modernist Catholics agreed 80-16 percent. About 47 percent of Latino Catholics agreed with the statement, while only 35 percent disagreed.
Concerning homosexual marriage, Latino Catholics are split 42 percent in favor to 41 percent against, judging by their response to the survey statement that “gays and lesbians should be permitted to marry legally.” Non-Hispanic Catholics are also closely split, 45 percent disagreeing while 43 percent agree. About 68 percent of traditionalist Catholics disagree with the statement, while centrist Catholics are evenly split and 65 percent of modernist Catholics agree.
Catholics tended to disagree with the statement that “free trade is good for the economy even if it means the loss of some U.S. jobs.” A majority of non-Hispanic Catholics agreed with that strict environmental regulation is necessary even if job cuts or higher prices result. Sixty seven percent of non-Hispanic Catholics and 55 percent of Latino Catholics agreed that local communities should be allowed to post the Ten Commandments and other religious symbols if the majority agrees.
Sixty six percent of non-Hispanic Catholics disagreed with the statement that clergy should be allowed to endorse candidates during worship services, while 55 percent of Hispanic Catholics disagreed.
By a margin of 52-42 percent, non-Hispanic Catholics did not agree that the U.S. rightly took action against Iraq. Traditionalist Catholics support the action by 56-36 percent, centrist Catholics oppose it by 54-34 percent, and modernist Catholics oppose it 68-29 percent. Latino Catholics oppose the Iraq action by a margin of 69-25.
Presidential predictions
In a presidential race between presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain and presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama, non-Hispanic Catholics favor McCain by a 43-35 margin. Hispanic Catholics favor Obama, but less fervently than they backed Hillary Clinton (73% in favor). The survey projects Obama to win 49 percent of Catholic Latinos and McCain to win 21 percent, with the rest being undecided.
Dr. Corwin Smidt, Director of The Henry Institute at Calvin College, told CNA that the very existence of a “Catholic vote” is a debated topic because Catholics are so divided. However, he himself thinks there is a Catholic vote to the extent that the Catholic faith seems to undergird particular positions. He said one could argue that there is a Catholic vote, but it moves Catholics in different directions. Traditionalists, he said, are moved by abortion, while centrists and modernists are more concerned with “social justice.” Both reflect facets of Catholic teaching.
Professor Smidt said he was surprised that non-Hispanic Catholics were so evenly divided between traditionalists, centrists, and modernists. “No one group dominates,” he said. Because Catholics do not fit neatly into one camp or another, he believes the Catholic vote will be “heavily contested” in the 2008 election.
Regarding the Latino vote, Dr. Smidt said Hispanic Catholics were likely to be strongly in favor of Obama and would play an important role in Sunbelt states. However, Catholic Hispanics’ levels of voter eligibility and levels of turnout would be a factor in the magnitude of their influence.