A recent poll shows that over the past eleven days, support for Proposition 8 is continuing to grow among young voters in California. Proposition 8, a California initiative that would reinstate the definition of marriage as between a man and a woman, has gained support after San Francisco Mayor, Gavin Newsom appeared in a TV ad proclaiming that same-sex marriage is here to stay "whether you like it or not."
Previous polls by CBS 5 had shown nearly a five-point margin in favor of the measure's defeat as recently as eleven days ago. However, the latest study shows a shift in opinion with voters in California overall favoring the passage of Proposition 8 by 47 percent to 42 percent.
A closer look at the overall picture shows that the only demographic group containing voters who significantly changed their views during this period were younger voters. This group is often found to be the most difficult to poll and also the most unpredictable.
It should also be noted that the poll, conducted statewide Oct. 4 and 5 among 670 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent, making the race too close to call. "Polling on ballot measures in general is an inexact science, and polling on homosexuality in general is a tricky business. So, not too much should be made of the 5 points that separates 'Yes' and 'No' today," concluded a summary of the results prepared by SurveyUSA.
Looking at geographic results, the poll showed that those living in the Inland Empire and the Central Valley continue to back the initiative, while those in the Bay Area remain opposed. Also divided are those living in the greater Los Angeles area.
As expected, support for a gay marriage ban was strongest among those who considered themselves conservatives and identified themselves as regular churchgoers. Opposition was strongest amongst liberals and those who are less religious.